| StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · NEVER LOSE AGAIN!! | << 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 ... 105 >>Post Follow-up |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #81418 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/19/2009 11:54:29 PM Guess I shouldn't mention the PhD ... |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #81419 - Ignore Eman93 |
10/20/2009 1:57:22 AM TRO If each event in the market is random (rat maze)....then screening for stats is just usless information....but it is not, there is a pattern proven statictaly and events then are somewhat predictable. you cant argue both sides. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81453 - Ignore TheRumpledOne modified |
10/20/2009 4:41:51 PM Did you go to Yale? Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT. I am NOT screening for stats. I am producing stats for stocks that meet certain criteria. But plenty of people are making money using my filters, indicators, methods, systems, etc... And MAKING MONEY IS ALL THAT MATTERS IN TRADING. |
| SFMc01 358 posts msg #81490 - Ignore SFMc01 |
10/21/2009 10:08:28 AM TRO: You state "I have been posting the RAT REVERSAL trade for a couple of weeks now." I have not been following the forum recently, but, I put "RAT REVERSAL" in search and nothing turned up except this post. Respectfully, could you give me further directions as to where to look? ... date and posting? Thank you. Steve |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #81500 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/21/2009 1:27:41 PM Google it - it shows up in several Forex-related sites. |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81569 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/22/2009 6:49:17 PM WWW.KRESLIK.COM is where I post my code, systems, methods, etc... |
| Eman93 4,750 posts msg #81575 - Ignore Eman93 |
10/22/2009 10:18:17 PM Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. ============================================= Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? |
| four 5,087 posts msg #81715 - Ignore four modified |
10/25/2009 9:59:00 AM
Is this correct? ...The items noted on your image (credit:TheRumpledOne). |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #81717 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/25/2009 10:39:21 AM Patterns exist. But what happens next is random. ============================================= Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ In the last 100 days, RIMM has gapped up 65 times (and filled that gap 44 of those 65 days) and has gapped down 35 times (filling that gap only 20 times) Probability of a gap up = 65% Probability of filling = 67.7% (44/65) Probability of a gap down = 35% Probability of filling = 57.1% (20/35) Probability of a gap in either direction = 90% Probability of filling = 71.1% (64/90) |
| TheRumpledOne 6,529 posts msg #81719 - Ignore TheRumpledOne |
10/25/2009 11:34:55 AM Each roll of a pair of dice is random but the probabilty of getting a 7 is higher than any other pair. So what is the probabilty of RIMM filling on a gap down? ========================== There is NO probability when it comes to trading. There are only statistics. Statistics are concerned with the past. Probability is concerned with the future. You can predict based on statistics but it is NOT the same as probability. The difference is subtle but you have to understand the difference exists. With dice, the probability never changes. You can, based on statistics, say that RIMM filled the gap X% of the time over the last N days. But that is not the same as probability. |
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