shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133783
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/17/2017 7:03:44 PM
SHORT Xiv long Ugaz Uwtif
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #133786
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
1/18/2017 8:17:35 AM
You have (in my opinion) correctly been calling for XIV to appreciate in the coming months, which makes me curious about what is driving this recommendation.
As of 1/17 XIV closed at $55.41. I say stay long XIV until the level of contango in the ^VIX futures drops to 5% or below (currently at 16.5% but we are going to see the current options expire tomorrow so the new value on Friday looks to be about 8-9%). The ^VIX term structure clearly supports XIV right now, and shows no immediate evidence of changing.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133795
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/18/2017 1:49:28 PM
Currently long Ugaz and just bought Uco.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133796
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/18/2017 2:04:05 PM
I guess to answer your question, my system has me in Xiv for the long time frame until monthly CCI(39) goes under -150. For short term exit, im using a combo of Acc. Bands, BB. Xiv is bumping at upper BAND which may not mean that it will reverse right away, but that it's running out of steam and that upside will be limited to about 10% before a correction, but down side will be substantial in the short term.
I no longer have much cash in the market as I had to use it for other transactions, so whatever I do have is just for my entertainment.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133798
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/18/2017 4:12:33 PM
Oh, 1 caveat, not every long term entry and exit works with the CCI(39) system. There is a trigger but that will remain proprietary. The hardest part is finding a system for the short term counter play. Acc. Bands are the closest thing I have so far.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133800
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/18/2017 4:27:26 PM
You will see when Xiv goes over top line it either will eventually bounce to center or lower line.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133801
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/18/2017 4:58:52 PM
Inversely, throw Tvix in the filter. When Tvix encroaches, lower line of bollinger(10) when under Acc. Band(21), you tend to get a bounce. Pretty accurate.
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pthomas215
1,251 posts
msg #133863
- Ignore pthomas215 |
1/24/2017 2:49:26 PM
shillihs, what % of your portfolio is in XIV on average? I think you said you hold onto some continuously.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133864
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
1/24/2017 3:27:20 PM
That's a good trade but I've taken it off do to being wishy washy and market seems frothy.
I've been in Ugaz, Uco, Ung and about to go long Tvix.
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shillllihs
6,094 posts
msg #133865
- Ignore shillllihs |
1/24/2017 3:38:10 PM
You can hold 20-25% Xiv through the correction and buy in 25% increments at key levels on the way down,
or 75% in one swoop at a perceived bottom. You will always have some skin in the game
in case you're wrong. BB. and Acc. B. are good for this.
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