shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121886
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
11/2/2014 10:27:16 PM
So buy N Hold 3x ETFs is a bad idea. If you bought & held
FAS for 5 years, you would have made 1,000%.
My question is, Natural gas, (UGAZ) is very low & ready to climb , either now or soon.
Can a commodity sustain a long uphill march like FAS? Are the dynamics different inherently?
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121889
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/3/2014 10:22:47 AM
(UGAZ)
13.68 Up 1.45(11.84%)
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121897
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/4/2014 11:42:53 AM
(UGAZ)
14.50 Up 0.81(5.92%)
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121899
- Ignore shillllihs
modified |
11/4/2014 12:23:02 PM
I might buy to cover DGAZ at 3.10
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121900
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/4/2014 12:24:36 PM
Education Management Corporation (EDMC)
-NasdaqGS
0.70 Up 0.09(15.07%)
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121904
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/4/2014 3:33:24 PM
I am unofficially the greatest swing trader on Stock fetcher. Until anyone comes remotely close,
i will not post anymore plays.
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121905
- Ignore guspenskiy13 |
11/4/2014 3:57:58 PM
Got caught on miners / taken out....still holding OIL.
Good question/'idea about UGAZ - I have been thinking about the same concept w/ oil.
If you look at oil for the past five years or really long-term....it has been range-bound...just as VIX.
Gas in past +-3 years...relatively range-bound as well...
In comparison for the past five years, FAS, strongly trending security...
IMO the dynamics are absolutely different...since the pricing model for commodity futures vs. stocks is different.... different reasons for supply/demand as well...
The range-bound properties - that's what got me really interested in both oil and gas....if it's range-bound you can be wrong and it won't hurt too much...a 15% DD in range-bound security is nothing in comparison to a 15% DD in trending...
Just imagine that you could buy VIX each time it's under 13...and hold for mean-reversion to occur....amazing
P.S.
UVXY@ 25.77. Next time SPY hits 200 it won't bounce...
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121906
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/4/2014 4:05:54 PM
Explain what you mean about UVXY.
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guspenskiy13
976 posts
msg #121907
- Ignore guspenskiy13
modified |
11/4/2014 4:47:49 PM
Oh, I just think that SPY will break 200 to confirm demand at 197-199 levels in next couple days...unless something extra-ordinary happens.
One idea that I've recently got is that commodity ETF's might experience some tailwind from its futures being in contango... I get somewhat different number in Prophet/Google Finance...
But if we trust google finance...the results are interesting...:
YTD:
SPGSNG (-2.39%)
UNG (-0.18%)
UGAZ (-40.64%)
DGAZ (-53.43%)
___________
1) Strong correlation between spot gas and UNG is questionable
2) 3x ETFs get killed by volatility drag.
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shillllihs
6,091 posts
msg #121908
- Ignore shillllihs |
11/4/2014 4:58:13 PM
So what is your forecast for ugaz/dgaz?
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